{"id": "1195062926686650374", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-07-23T03:00:00Z", "msg": "911\nWTNT42 KNHC 230244\nTCDAT2\n \nTropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026\n1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026\n \nAfter making landfall in southeastern Louisiana earlier today,\nSurface observations show that the center has become less well\ndefined.  It appears, however, that the center has slipped a little\nsouthwestward and close to the coast of south Louisiana.  Most of \nthe deep convection continues to be south and southwest of the \ncenter, out over the northern Gulf, due to the persistent \nnorth-northeasterly vertical wind shear.  The overall cloud pattern \nis not very well organized, and is elongated from southwest to \nnortheast.  The intensity estimate is held at 40 kt for this \nadvisory, with these winds occurring primarily over the Gulf waters.\n\nBertha has been moving a little south of west over the past several \nhours, with the initial motion a faster 260/10 kt.  The main \nsteering mechanism continues to be a large and strong \nmid-tropospheric anticyclone over the south-central United States.  \nBertha should move along the southern periphery of this high \npressure area for the next day or two, and is expected to briefly \nre-emerge over the northwestern Gulf waters on Thursday. The system \nshould cross the upper Texas coast later on Thursday and move \ninland over Texas after that.  The official forecast track is just \nslightly south of the previous NHC prediction, mainly due to the \nmore southern location of the center, and is close to the latest \ncorrected consensus, HCCA, guidance.\n\nSince the storm should remain in a dry mid-level air mass with \ncontinued strong north-northeasterly vertical wind shear through \nThursday, significant re-strengthening over the northwestern Gulf \nwaters is unlikely.  The official intensity forecast is on the high \nside of the model guidance, close to the SHIPS prediction.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward along\nthe northern Gulf Coast from Mississippi to southwestern Louisiana,\nincluding the Metro New Orleans area, tonight and on Thursday.\nTropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the upper \nTexas coast on Thursday.\n \n2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and\nLouisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected.\n \n3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the Texas Gulf Coast \nand South Texas through Thursday night.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  23/0300Z 29.4N  91.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  23/1200Z 29.2N  92.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  24/0000Z 29.1N  95.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  24/1200Z 29.0N  98.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}