{"id": "1194285101992214530", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-07-20T09:00:00Z", "msg": "527\nWTPZ45 KNHC 200848\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Storm Elida Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026\n200 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026\n \nSatellite imagery shows convection associated with Elida continues \nto fade as the cyclone encounters cooler sea surface temperatures, \ndrier air, and increasing southwesterly wind shear. A recent partial \nASCAT-C pass indicates the system still has winds of around 42 kt, \nso the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.\n \nGradual weakening is expected through the forecast period as the \nhostile environmental conditions persist, with the cyclone forecast \nto degenerate into a remnant low and then eventually dissipate into \nan open trough in a few days. The latest TAFB satellite intensity \nestimate was too weak to classify because of the lack of persistent \ndeep convection, suggesting that Elida could degenerate into a \npost-tropical cyclone sooner than currently forecast if these \nsatellite trends continue.\n \nElida has turned toward the north-northwest and appears to be \nincreasing its forward speed, with the latest motion estimated at \n340/11 kt. This north-northwestward then northward motion should \ncontinue the next few days as the cyclone moves between a deep-layer \ntrough to its northwest and a ridge centered over the southwestern \nUnited States. The NHC track forecast is near the previous, and lies \nnear the corrected consensus HCCA.\n  \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  20/0900Z 25.3N 127.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  20/1800Z 27.2N 127.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  21/0600Z 30.0N 127.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  21/1800Z 32.7N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  22/0600Z 34.6N 127.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  22/1800Z 36.7N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}