{"id": "1194213123493822466", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-07-20T03:00:00Z", "msg": "464\nWTPZ45 KNHC 200241\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Storm Elida Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026\n800 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026\n \nConvection associated with Elida has continued to weaken and its \nlow-level center is now exposed. The initial intensity estimate has \nbeen lowered slightly to 45 kt, based on a blend of the latest \nFinal-T and CI Dvorak estimate from TAFB and the expectation that \nthe tropical storm has weakened slightly since partial ASCAT data \nearlier today showed peak winds near 45 kt. Further gradual \nweakening is expected as Elida continues to move over cooler waters \nand into a drier and more stable environment. Increasing \nsouthwesterly wind shear should also contribute to weakening. The \ncyclone is now forecast to become a remnant low within 24 to 36 h, \nwhich is supported by simulated satellite forecasts from several \ndynamical models. However, if the recent weakening trend for \nconvection associated with the tropical storm to continues \novernight, that transition could occur even sooner.\n\nElida appears to be very slightly farther west than previously \nestimated, but it is still expected to make a turn toward the north \ntonight and pick up forward speed as it turns between a deep-layer \ntrough to its northwest and a ridge centered over the southwestern \nU.S. Only a very slight westward adjustment was made to the track \nforecast to account for the tweak in the initial position. The \nreliable guidance is in good agreement on Elida's track, and the \ntropical storm is expected to generally move northward for the next \nday or so until it becomes a remnant low. The remnants are then \nexpected to continue northward and gradually slow down until the \ncyclone dissipates near the middle of the week.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  20/0300Z 24.1N 126.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  20/1200Z 26.0N 127.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  21/0000Z 28.7N 127.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  21/1200Z 31.6N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  22/0000Z 34.2N 127.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  22/1200Z 35.6N 127.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}