{"id": "1194141947342520322", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-07-19T21:00:00Z", "msg": "514\nWTPZ45 KNHC 192039\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Storm Elida Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026\n200 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026\n \nSatellite imagery indicates that the convection within the inner\ncore of Elida has weakened since the previous advisory. The\nconvective weakening is likely in connection to the cyclone moving\nover the colder ocean waters. In addition, the latest subjective \nDvorak intensity estimate from TAFB came in at T3.0/55 kt, which is \nslightly lower than the previous estimate. However, the latest \nASCAT pass, while partial, did sample of peak surface winds away \nfrom the center of around 45 kt. Thus the intensity for Elida has \nbeen held at 50 kt for this advisory. \n \nThe initial motion is north-northwestward, or 340/8 kt. Elida is\nexpected to continue turning northward while gradually accelerating\nover the next day or two as it becomes increasingly steered by a\ndeep-layer trough off the California coast. There was a slight \nnudge to the west with this advisory, but the track guidance\nmaintains an overall good consistency from the last several periods.\nAs such only very minor adjustments have been made to the NHC\nforecast track.\n \nThe convection in the inner core of Elida looks less impressive than \nbefore, and this is an indication that the cyclone is starting to \nweaken. The system is moving over sea-surface temperatures below 25 \ndegrees C, and ocean waters are expected to cool further as the \nsystem continues to move northward over the next couple days. In \naddition,  increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier \nmid-level air should also contribute to a steady weakening trend.  \nElida is forecast to lose its deep convection and become a remnant \nlow on Tuesday, with the remnant low dissipating by late Wednesday. \nThe NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the \nprevious advisory.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  19/2100Z 23.2N 125.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  20/0600Z 24.8N 126.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  20/1800Z 27.4N 127.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  21/0600Z 30.1N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  21/1800Z 32.7N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  22/0600Z 34.9N 127.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  22/1800Z 37.1N 127.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}