{"id": "1194071232968851458", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-07-19T15:00:00Z", "msg": "844\nWTPZ45 KNHC 191440\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Storm Elida Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026\n800 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that Elida has been able to hold on to \nsome deep convection in the inner core for the last several hours. \nA 0743 UTC OSCAT scatterometer pass sampled some of the peak \nsurface winds around 45 kt. However, the latest subjective Dvorak \nintensity estimate from TAFB remained at T3.5/55 kt. Given the \ncurrent satellite presentation and the other data on hand, the \nintensity has been held at 50 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is north-northwestward, or 340/8 kt. Elida is\nexpected to continue turning northward while gradually accelerating\nover the next day or two as it becomes increasingly steered by a\ndeep-layer trough off the California coast. The track guidance \nmaintains a fairly good consistency from the last several periods. \nAs such only very minor adjustments have been made to the NHC \nforecast track. \n\nAlthough the system still has a good presentation on satellite \nimages, the cyclone is moving over sea-surface temperatures below 25 \ndegrees C.  Ocean waters are expected to cool further as the system \ncontinues to move northward over the next couple days. In addition, \nincreasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier mid-level \nair should result in a steady weakening trend. Elida is forecast to \nlose its deep convection and become a remnant low by Monday night, \nwith the remnant low dissipating by late Wednesday. The NHC \nintensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous \nadvisory.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  19/1500Z 22.2N 125.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  20/0000Z 23.7N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  20/1200Z 26.0N 126.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  21/0000Z 28.6N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  21/1200Z 31.5N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  22/0000Z 34.0N 127.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  22/1200Z 36.0N 127.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}