{"id": "1189327373302824962", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-07-02T21:00:00Z", "msg": "924\nWTPZ44 KNHC 022031\nTCDEP4\n \nTropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042026\n200 PM PDT Thu Jul 02 2026\n\nThere has been little change in the organization of Douglas during \nthe past several hours as the cyclone continues to produce \nconvection in a ragged band to the northwest and north of the \ncenter.  The various subjective and objective satellite intensity \nestimates remain in the 35-40 kt range, and a partial ASCAT pass in \nthe southeastern quadrant showed winds of at least 30 kt.  Based \non these data, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is now north-northwestward or 345/6 kt.  This \ngeneral motion should continue for the next 12 h or so, followed by \na turn to the northwest as the weakening cyclone is steered more by \nthe low-level flow.  The track guidance is in general agreement \nwith this scenario, and indeed much of it lies to the left of the \nnew forecast track.  However, the Google DeepMind Ensemble mean \nshows less of a turn than the other models and consequently is on \nthe right side of the guidance envelope by 48-72 h.  The new \nforecast track is a little to the left of the previous track and \nlies near the HCCA corrected consensus model.\n \nDouglas is now passing over the 26C isotherm and is experiencing\n10-15 kt of southwesterly vertical shear.  The shear is expected to\nincrease while the cyclone moves over colder water, and the cyclone \nis also likely to entrain dry air.  Based on these factors, Douglas \nshould weaken during the forecast period.  The current expectation \nis that the cyclone will stop producing convection and become a \nremnant low tomorrow by the 24 h forecast point, with the remnant \nlow persisting for several days as it continues northwestward. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/2100Z 18.0N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  03/0600Z 18.8N 127.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  03/1800Z 20.0N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  04/0600Z 21.0N 128.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  04/1800Z 21.8N 129.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  05/0600Z 22.6N 130.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  05/1800Z 23.4N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}