{"id": "1189256782473035778", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-07-02T15:00:00Z", "msg": "293\nWTPZ44 KNHC 021432\nTCDEP4\n \nTropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042026\n800 AM PDT Thu Jul 02 2026\n \nGeostationary and microwave satellite imagery shows that while \nDouglas continues to produce bursts of convection, the convection \nis poorly organized and located mainly in a nearly linear band to \nthe north of the center.  The various subjective and objective \nsatellite intensity estimates are in the 35-40 kt range, and given \nthe rather ragged appearance the initial intensity is held at 35 \nkt. \n\nThe initial motion is 355/5 kt.  A northward motion should continue \nfor the next 12 h or so as the storm moves around the western \nperiphery of a mid-level ridge. After that, the guidance generally \nagrees that Douglas should turn generally northwestward as the \nweakening cyclone is steered more by the low-level flow. The new \nforecast track is similar to the previous track and lies close to \nthe HCCA corrected consensus model.\n \nDouglas is now passing over the 26C isotherm and is experiencing \n10-15 kt of southwesterly vertical shear.  The shear is expected to \nincrease as the cyclone moves over colder water, and dry air is \nlikely to entrain into the circulation.  Based on this, the \nintensity guidance agrees that Douglas should weaken during the \nforecast period, becoming a depression sometime tonight, a remnant \nlow sometime on Friday, and dissipating by 96 h. The new intensity \nforecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/1500Z 17.4N 127.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  03/0000Z 18.2N 127.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  03/1200Z 19.5N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  04/0000Z 20.6N 128.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  04/1200Z 21.5N 129.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  05/0000Z 22.3N 130.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  05/1200Z 23.1N 131.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}