{"id": "1189186480808886274", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-07-02T09:00:00Z", "msg": "123\nWTPZ44 KNHC 020835\nTCDEP4\n \nTropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042026\n200 AM PDT Thu Jul 02 2026\n \nDeep convection continues to burst north of the low-level center of \nDouglas, with a broken convective band displaced to the southeast \nthis morning. Microwave imagery showed that the low-level center is \nlocated south of the ongoing convection. Satellite intensity \nestimates from UW-CIMSS range between 35 and 40 knots, with the \nlatest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB remaining T2.5/35 kt. \nUnfortunately, scatterometer missed the system tonight, which would \nhave helped with the current intensity and wind radii. Given the \nlatest estimates, the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.\n \nThe storm continues to move generally northward around 6 kt. This \nmotion should continue today as the storm moves around the western \nperiphery of a mid-level ridge. On Friday, a turn to the northwest \nthan west is forecast as the system weakens and is steered by the \nlow-level flow. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous \nand lies between the Google DeepMind and HCCA corrected consensus \naids.\n \nDouglas has only 6 to 12 hours before it encounters a less favorable \nenvironment with drier mid-level RH, increasing vertical wind shear, \nand cooler sea surface temperatures. Although not explicitly \nreflected in the official intensity forecast, a brief period of \nslight strengthening remains possible during the next several hours. \nHowever, by tonight a weakening trend should begin and Douglas is \nforecast to struggle to maintain deep convection in about 24\u201336 \nhours and should degenerate into a remnant low during that period. \nThe NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous and is in good \nagreement with the latest guidance.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/0900Z 17.0N 127.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  02/1800Z 17.8N 127.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  03/0600Z 19.0N 127.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  03/1800Z 20.2N 128.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  04/0600Z 21.2N 128.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  04/1800Z 22.1N 129.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  05/0600Z 23.0N 130.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}