{"id": "1185154819615064066", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-06-18T03:00:00Z", "msg": "440\nWTNT41 KNHC 180249\nTCDAT1\n \nPost-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012026\n1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026\n\nSurface observations indicated that the center of Arthur re-formed \nnear Galveston around 21-22Z in response to an offshore convective \nburst. Since that time, there has been no organized convection near \nthe center, and the circulation has become elongated along the Upper \nTexas coast. Based on these developments, and the expectation that \norganized convection will not reform near the center, Arthur is no \nlonger a tropical cyclone and is being downgraded to a post-tropical \nlow with 30 kt winds.\n\nWhile the motion is a bit uncertain due to the center reformation, \nit appears that the system is starting to move a bit faster toward \nthe northeast with the initial motion estimated at 040/8 kt.  A \ngeneral northeastward motion is expected until the surface center \ndissipates tonight over southeastern Texas or southwestern \nLouisiana. After that, the remnants of Arthur should move east- \nnortheastward across the southeastern United States and emerge into \nthe Atlantic on Friday. A continued east-northeastward motion out to \nsea is expected thereafter.\n\nAs mentioned, the surface center of Arthur is expected to dissipate \nlater tonight. The global models suggest that the surface center \ncould reform near the Atlantic coast on Friday, with some \nintensification possible as the system moves out to sea. It is \nunclear at this time whether this re-development will be due to \ntropical cyclone processes or baroclinic process. However, marine \ngale warnings are being issued for portions of the western Atlantic \nin anticipation of this development.\n \nEven though Arthur is no longer a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall \nand life-threatening flash flooding will continue to be a major \nhazard for the next few days across the southeastern United States. \nThere is also an increased tornado threat for portions of the \nsoutheastern U.S. through Thursday.\n\nThat is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on \nthis system. Rainfall forecasts for the remnants of Arthur in the \nUnited States can be found at \nhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash \nflood risks can be found at \nhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php\n.\nMarine forecasts, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas \nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header \nNFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at \nocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. \n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding \nare likely through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern \nMississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida \nPanhandle. Scattered minor river flooding is expected, with the \npotential for isolated moderate to major river flooding. Ongoing \nheavy rainfall could prolong the flood threat through the weekend.\n \n2. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force could occur along portions \nof the Louisiana coast tonight.\n \n3. Coastal flooding along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana should \ngradually subside later tonight and Thursday.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  18/0300Z 29.7N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}