{"id": "1184939889689591810", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-06-17T09:00:00Z", "msg": "055\nWTNT41 KNHC 170835\nTCDAT1\n \nPotential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012026\n400 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026\n \nThe center of the low pressure area is very near the Middle Texas\ncoast, and offshore buoy observations indicate that maximum winds\nremain 25 kt.  A line of deep convection has formed over the\nnorthwestern Gulf waters since the last advisory, but due to strong\nwesterly shear, this activity is located more than 120 n mi to the\neast/southeast of the low-level center.  As a result, the latest\nDvorak classification from TAFB is Too Weak To Classify, meaning\nthe system does not have the convective organization necessary to\nbe designated as a tropical cyclone.\n \nThe current motion is northeastward, or 045/5 kt.  The system is\nembedded in strengthening low- to mid-level southwesterly flow, and\nwith another trough approaching from the northwest, it is expected\nto accelerate northeastward today.  The track guidance has shifted\nslightly westward on this cycle, and the center of the low is\ntherefore likely to straddle the Texas coast for much of the day,\nbefore moving farther inland over eastern Texas or Louisiana\ntonight.  The NHC official track has been nudged westward, close to\nthe TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.\n \nThe prospects for this system to become a tropical cyclone may be\ndecreasing.  With the low-level center unlikely to fully emerge\nover the Gulf waters for an appreciable amount of time, and 25-30\nkt of westerly shear expected to continue for the next 12 hours, it\nwill be difficult for the system to gain the convective\norganization necessary to become a tropical cyclone before it moves\ninland tonight.  Even if the system doesn't become a tropical\ncyclone, there could still be some strengthening of the wind field\nwell east of the center during the day, and the NHC official\nforecast will continue to show a peak of 35 kt in 12 hours.  After\nthat, all of the global models now show the system opening up into a\ntrough over Louisiana by tonight.  The official forecast shows the\nsystem as a remnant low at 24 hours, but it's entirely possible it\nwill have dissipated by then.\n \nThe global models show the remnant low-level vorticity continuing\neastward across the Southeast U.S. on Thursday and Friday, and the\nECMWF, Canadian, and UKMET models indicate that a low pressure\nsystem could redevelop, especially once the system moves offshore\nover the western Atlantic.  The exact nature of this low is unclear\nat this time, but we will monitor model trends for the possibility\nof tropical cyclone formation over the western Atlantic late this\nweek or this weekend.\n \nRegardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy\nrainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary\nhazards with this system.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding\nare likely through Thursday across southern Louisiana, southern\nMississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia and the Florida\nPanhandle, with possible flooding near the Upper Texas coast.\nOngoing heavy rainfall could prolong the flood threat into the\nweekend.\n \n2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Louisiana\ncoast today from Sabine Pass to Morgan City where a Tropical\nStorm Warning is in effect.\n \n3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of\nthe Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines today.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  17/0900Z 28.0N  96.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  17/1800Z 29.1N  95.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 24H  18/0600Z 31.1N  92.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}