{"id": "1183028771679961090", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-06-10T15:00:00Z", "msg": "894\nWTPZ43 KNHC 101435\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032026\n900 AM CST Wed Jun 10 2026\n\nCristina is rather disorganized at the moment. The low-level center \nthat has been tracked previously has become hard to locate even \nwith the aid of a recent microwave pass. The microwave data \nsuggests the possibility that a second vorticity center is forming \nto the southwest close to a convective band. However, 1-min GOES \ndata suggests this center is a low- to mid-level feature and not a \nsurface center. The advisory position is based primarily on \ncontinuity from the previous advisory, and the initial intensity \nis held at 35 kt based on the various satellite intensity \nestimates. Upcoming SAR and scatterometer passes will hopefully \nbring some clarity as to the center location and structure.\n\nThe initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/3. However, the track \nguidance is in good agreement that Cristina should turn \nnorthwestward during the next 12 h as a low- to mid-level ridge \nbuilds to the northeast of the storm. This motion should bring the \nstorm to the coast of Central America in around 24 h and inland \nthereafter.  The new forecast track is a little to the left of the \nprevious track based mainly on the initial position, and additional \nadjustments to the track may be necessary depending on what the \nupcoming satellite wind data shows.\n\nCristina is in a favorable environment of light shear and very warm \nwater that should allow some strengthening as suggested by the \nstatistical-dynamical models. However, proximity to land and the \ncurrent disorganization are negative factors, and the dynamical \nmodels forecast little change in strength before landfall. The new \nintensity forecast will show a little strengthening during the next \n12 h. After that, the expected path near and over Central America \nshould lead to the cyclone's demise by 48 h.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Cristina will \nimpact coastal portions of Central America through Thursday. This \nrainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, \nespecially in areas of steep terrain.\n \n2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to\nimpact portions of the coasts of El Salvador and Honduras today \nand tonight.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  10/1500Z 12.5N  88.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 12.9N  89.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  11/1200Z 13.8N  89.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  12/0000Z 15.2N  90.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}