{"id": "1182960639522078722", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-06-10T09:00:00Z", "msg": "841\nWTPZ43 KNHC 100848\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032026\n300 AM CST Wed Jun 10 2026\n \nRecent radar images from Nicaragua show a small curved band to the \nsouthwest of the center of Cristina, with a larger area of newer \nconvection that extends farther to the west offshore of El Salvador \nand Guatemala. Earlier passive microwave images were inconclusive in \nassessing the low-level structure of the storm, but recent OSCAT \nwinds indicate the center is still closed with the strongest winds \nconfined to the southern semicircle of the circulation. Based on a \nblend of the OSCAT data with the latest UW-CIMSS objective (28-39 \nkt) and TAFB subjective (35 kt) satellite intensity estimates, the \ninitial intensity is held at 35 kt.\n\nCristina is still moving slowly westward (260/3 kt). Compared to \nlast night, the track models are in much better agreement that the \nstorm will turn west-northwestward and then northwestward during \nthe next day or so while approaching Central America. The updated \nNHC track forecast follows the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids and \nshows Cristina reaching the coast of El Salvador by early Thursday. \nThis track prediction is slightly to the left of the previous one. \n\nCristina remains over very warm SSTs, and the deep-layer shear has \ndecreased since yesterday. However, the storm is still fairly close \nto land, and the dynamical models suggest little change in strength \nwill occur before Cristina reaches the coast. Therefore, the NHC \nforecast continues to show only modest strengthening before Cristina \nmoves inland on Thursday morning within the warning area. This \nprediction lies on the higher end of the intensity guidance \nenvelope. Once inland, the mountainous terrain of El Salvador and \nGuatemala will induce rapid weakening, and Cristina should dissipate \nby Thursday night.\n\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Cristina will\nimpact coastal portions of Central America through Thursday. This\nrainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,\nespecially in areas of steep terrain.\n \n2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to \nimpact portions of the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and \nNicaragua today and tonight.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  10/0900Z 12.4N  88.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 12.7N  88.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 13.4N  89.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 14.5N  90.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}