ABNT20 KNHC 171734 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure located about 525 miles east-southeast of Barbados is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization since this morning and the system still appears to lack a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are conducive for some development before the system reaches the Lesser Antilles late Tuesday or early Wednesday. After that time, less favorable upper-level winds are expected to hinder additional development. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to investigate the disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. An area of disturbed weather is located about 875 miles west- southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next few days while it moves slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest over the open Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.